There is a national obsession in predicting the future particularly when this process is applied to the next political election. America's next political election, of course, is the midterm congressional election in November 2010.
Along with the obsession in predicting outcomes there is also a pattern of slap five-ness or jump on the bandwagon. There isn't a news program which has failed to predict the democrats losing big in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The reasons for the already conceded election is also almost unitary. Among them are: the voters are disillusioned with Obama's failure to make the big changes he promised; the Democrats are as bad as the Republicans were if not worse when it comes to the soaring deficit, enormous growth in the government, inability to get the Republicans to compromise, soft on the terrorists and more predictable and unitary 'talking points' most of which are too absurd, distortions of the truth, over simplifications, down right lies, and purposeful obfuscation to waste time defending.
That many millions of voters are angry probably motivated by severe anxiety and uncertainty is unquestionably true. It is also a fact that in such times of turbulence it is psychologically predictable that many people turn on the party who has the reigns of leadership holding them primarily responsible for their sorry states.
History does indeed demonstrate that in most cases the predictions of in with the new and out with the old does seem to occur with a predictable rhythm. But there are exceptions to the rule... and I believe that we may be witnessing one of those rare historical exceptions.
It is no secret that I am an ardent supporter of President Obama. I was converted the first time I saw him in person at NYU before the election. I liked him then and I like him more now.And if my judgment is accurate then the card that has yet to be played is the potential power of President Obama to take full command of the anxious crowd and define exactly what he thinks should be accomplished and exactly how he intends to do it.
In the midst of congressional paralysis in which there has been a calculated strategy by many congressmen to take the low road, the antidote is a constant appeal and insistence that the high road must be the one we have to travel.
There are signs that indicate that President Obama is gearing up to be the continual forceful commander we all need. And mind you I am not advocating a strong man in the sense of a dictator but a strong man in the sense of Lincoln, and Washington whose eyes were always on doing what was in the best interests of the country as a whole.
It is an attitude thing, a character thing, a principles thing, firm forceful allegiance to what is good, and decent, and reasonable, and fair minded, - relatively free of hypocrisy, deceit, double and triple messages, game playing of the lowest common denominator.
I am not a starry eyed liberal who isn't aware that money rules - that power corrupts - that the general name of the game is be elected any way you can and once so maintain your power at any cost. But it is also true that as Lincoln said you can't fool all the people all the time. And if there was ever a time in our history where the American people as a whole need to be crystal clear who are our most respected leaders to follow, it is now.
Therefore in this light it appears that even with only 10 months to go before the midterm elections my hunch is that the Republicans and so called conservatives as a block are likely to be in for a big surprise.
My prediction is that the stimulus will kick in and show an unexpected positive sign for job creation. Additionally it looks like a health bill may well be enacted with a desired public option. And more - that signs from both Pakistan and Afganistan more than hint that major turns in both wars may well be much closer than anyone would have thought was at all possible as recently as 6 months ago.
And most importantly President Obama is forcefully forcing the lowest of the low 'politicians' to look at themselves in a mirror reflecting the truth of their transparent ''games."
What I am saying is that there is a long way to the next election and if I am right: forceful - enlightened leadership - is going to be the major variable in the outcome of the midterm election. So - if this is accurate - then the Republican and so called conservatives better quickly find something positive and constructive to advocate instead of their unitary No to everything - or they are likely to come up way short of what they have already written off as a sure thing.
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