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I remember being highly tuned into the many sided war in the Balkans, trying in vain to imagine how any good end could occur with multiple factions battling each other. But in fact it did end - as do all wars sooner or later. Sometimes it takes decades but wars eventually end. How does this happen? Simple: when the balance of forces shifts from both sides concluding that the advantage in continuing fighting to disadvantage in continuing fighting then cease fire is the inevitable welcomed benefactor.
I imagine the major motivator in shifting from advantage to continuing to make war to disadvantage in waging war is the stamina factor. Since people have realistic limitations they individually and collectively wear out and become exhausted. When two sides in a given conflict wear out simultaneously there is no other option than to sue for the cessations of hostilities.
Such appears to be the conditions in the Mid East right at the present moment. It is obvious that both sides have their plusses but also have their minuses as well. Since the scorecards are obvious I won't describe the accumulated points total.
What seems more relevant is the expected aftermath.
In this connection an article by Tom Friedman in today's editorial section of the New York Times is noteworthy. A headline reads:"Hezbollah will have to face the people." Tom Friedman goes on to state that after each side pronounces "victory" expecially Hezbollah for standing up to Israel there will be an inevitable accounting.
His point is that the people of Lebanon, their beautiful country all but in ruins - once again - are going to collectively scratch their heads and consider if all of the destruction for a bit of boasting has been worth it?
Someone is going to have to be responsible for rebuilding the country. Who is in a better position to do so - and presumably the only ones who can do so - than Hezbollah {the self appointed champions of the people who are so charitable and kind and good and pure of motives?}
Ironic that if they don't assume responsibility for rebuilding Lebanon they will unmasked as frauds. And if they do accept this responsibility they will have to use their billions {presumably supplied by Iran} for constructive and not destructive purposes. The new supply lines will have to be convoys of trucks loaded to the brim with cement and steel girders instead of rockets and bullets.
If they want to be true champions of the people they will throw themselves into rebuilding Lebanon and earn the respect of both the Lebanese people and perhaps the world.
Meanwhile it will be a potential shift in global world opinion for the Israeli's who will be seen as deferring to Hezbollah by agreeing to pull out after they have flatly stated they would not do so until peace was assured.
If the 30 thousand UN and Lebanese force cannot stop Hezbollah from continuing to make war - the world's searchlite will clearly focus on this obvious fact.
The fact that Hezbollah has agreed to this ceasefire can only mean that they are seriously degraded as a fighting force. Israel has been bloodied as well. They must both be exhausted. Good for them and good for the world.
Now it is time for reason to prevail - pick up the pieces - monitor the ceasefire and insist that differences be talked out rather than physically fought out.
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