IT'S CLEARLY OBAMA'S ELECTION TO LOSE
Now that the post republican convention bounce has run its course - largely fueled by the Sarah Palin effect - the polls are signalling a notable shift in momentum to the Obama-Biden ticket.
Like many American citizens I am thoroughly caught up in the day to day twists and turns of this most remarkable presidential campaign. To say that I wholeheartedly want to throw the bums out of office is greatly underestimating the intensity of my fervor. However I also wish to contain my emotion enough to feel that my choice is as well informed as I am capable of making.
From the moment I first saw Barak Obama in a rally at NYU I, like multitudes of others, was enthralled with his spirit, intellect, candidness, command of himself among many other impressive personal and political attributes. I had no doubt this new guy is a comer. But it is easy to fall under the sway of the new guy or new gal in town. It is quite another to remain enthusiastic once the inevitable honeymoon is over.
In this light it is interesting to note the collective's attitude to both Obama and Palin both initially and over time. The initial reaction to both was idenitical: enthrallment. But over time the collective judgment is unequal.
Those that have liked Obama from the beginning tend to favor him to the same degree if not more. By contrast, many of those who initially were captivated by Palin are exhibiting signs of undisguised doubts. Key pundits such as George Will are harldy subtle in the expression of their serious concern about her being more of a liability than an asset.
Just two days before the Biden/Palin debate the conversation is less who is going to win but how toi prevent Palin from losing badly. There is wide spread discussion among many key Republicans as to what would be the likely potential effect on the election if Palin is either allowed to continue or be replaced with someone else. Additionally there is a related discussion as to whether the handlers should let Palin be Palin or making her even more scripted than she already obviously has been.
Meanwhile John McCain can't seem to delay his apparent need to instantly weigh in on every issue despite the fact that many of his judgments such as the bailout have proven to be premature at best and embarrasing at worse. Whereas Obama, characteristically, has held back, reflecting, carefully considering what is best to do in this crisis ridden atmosphere. I find his reflecting then acting a breath of fresh air compared with the other attitude of act first then think about it.
So obviously I am unappologetically pro Obama and Biden and cringe when I think about the realistic possibility I may not realize my preference. It is at times like this when I wish I had something solid to encourage me. Lucky for me and perhaps you too, there is.
I discovered this wonderful url called fivethirtyeight.com. The owner is a baseball fanatic utilizing his statistical skills to predict winners and losers. He has transferred his impressive abilities to objectively interpret the multiple poll readings gathered each day in the current presidential campaign.
Up until a few weeks ago the advantage was clearly in McCain's camp. But for the last two weeks there has been a notable shift in favor of the side I like the best. Pouring over the daily statistics presents clear and distinct patterns. The statistical patterns derived from the results of multiple polls shows a notable rising tide in favor of the Obama/ Biden team. But what I like best is the objective interpretation of this material all of which lends unmistakeable evidence that my sense that a landslide is in the making is most probably accurate.
I feel so confident about this that I am already starting to fantasize how the Obama administration will radically change the atmosphere for the better. In this connection I vivdly remember the joy I felt when JFK, Jacky, and their two delightful children, Carolyn and John John swept into the White House beginning with their innaugural day.
And if I prove to be wrong well I have managed to survive Nixon and two miserable George Bush terms so I will just have to press on, hoping that the next election will turn out to have favorable rather than unfavorable results.
Bring on Novemeber!